A reckoning is coming.
Or shall we say, ‘reckonings.’
And they’re coming, whether the government re-opens soon or remains shuttered.
If the government stays closed, voters will likely torch both parties for not hammering out a deal. Air traffic delays are stacking up. Those problems only intensify as we near Thanksgiving and Christmas. That’s to say nothing of multiple missed paychecks for federal employees, stress, economic consequences and no SNAP benefits for the needy.
Some of those concerns will dissipate if lawmakers address the shutdown quickly. But there will be a reckoning if the shutdown drags deeper into November.
There are likely specific reckonings for both political parties.
For Republicans, it’s a resistance by GOP leaders to address spiking health care subsidies. Yes. The GOP is making a compelling argument that health care subsidies are only necessary because Obamacare is a problem and health care prices skyrocketed. So Republicans are back fighting against Obamacare.
In fact, the entire government shutdown is not about spending levels and appropriations. It’s a re-litigation of the touchstone law passed under President Obama in 2010. And Republicans — despite multiple campaign promises and dozens of efforts to kill the law over a six-year period, failed at nearly every turn.
Despite issues with Obamacare, Democrats annexed the public’s concern about health care costs and linked that to government funding. Democrats appear like the party trying to address the issue as premiums spike. And Republicans, despite promises that they’ll get to it, are inert on the subject. They’re even championing efforts to lambaste Obamacare — much the same as they did in 2010 when Congress passed the law.
Republicans are latched on to the concept that the subsidies are ‘pumping money to insurance companies,’ as Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., put it on Fox. Lankford also characterized those who benefitted from Obamacare as a ‘select group.’ It works out to about 24 million people. That’s seven percent of the U.S. population. So maybe that burns the GOP politically. Maybe it doesn’t.
A major reckoning looms for the Democrats, too.
It’s possible that a coalition of Democratic senators may break with the Democratic Party and support a new GOP plan to re-open the government on a temporary basis. Nowhere is it written that Democrats — who made the shutdown about health care — are guaranteed an outcome on Obamacare subsidies. Yes, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., have said they’ll address the health care issue after the government is open. But that’s not necessarily a fix.
So Democrats are fuming.
Therefore, it’s a distinct possibility that Democrats will refuse to fund the government in an effort to extract a concession on Obamacare subsidies — and walk away empty-handed.
Such an outcome will spark an internecine firestorm inside the Democratic Party. Progressives felt that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., rolled them back in March when he and a squadron of other Democrats helped the GOP crack a filibuster to avoid a shutdown.
It’s doubtful that Schumer will help this time. But Senate Republicans hope to coax just enough Democrats to overcome the filibuster on a pending test vote and then fund the government through late January.
That’s the reckoning for the Democrats.
No outcome on health care. And getting the screws put to them by members of their own party.
Again.
Progressives will be apoplectic. And House Democrats will seethe — not so privately — at Senate Democrats.
The Senate’s test vote on the new GOP proposal could come as early as Sunday evening. The revised package would also fund the Department of Agriculture and Department of Veterans Affairs, plus, Congress until Sept. 30, 2026.
Fox is told Republicans believe they are in range of persuading Democrats who are sweating the shutdown to join them.
Fox is told that air traffic control and flight delays are contributing to the Democrats’ consternation.
That said, it is believed that the Senate GOP leadership is reluctant to force a vote related to the retooled, spending bill without a guarantee it could break a filibuster. The last thing the Senate needs is another failed procedural vote – after repeated failed test votes over the past six weeks.
Let’s game out the timing for a moment:
By the book, if the Senate breaks the filibuster late Sunday, it’s doubtful the chamber can take a final vote on the package until Monday or Tuesday. But Fox is told there is a distinct possibility that Democrats could yield back time to expedite the process in the interest of quickly re-opening the government. By the same token, angry liberal senators could bleed out the parliamentary clocks and attempt to amend the bill to their liking — presumably with Obamacare provisions.
The Senate must break yet another filibuster to finish the bill. Then it’s on to final passage. That only needs a simple majority. And even if some Democrats voted to hurdle the filibuster, they might not support the underlying plan at the end. However, that’s not a problem if GOP senators provide the necessary votes.
Then it’s on to the House. The House’s disposition is unclear on this legislation. However, it’s hard to believe that most Republicans wouldn’t take this deal. Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash. and Jared Golden, D-Maine, are among moderate Democrats who may be in play to vote yes if the GOP loses a few votes. Golden was the lone House Democrat who voted for the old interim spending bill on Friday, September 19. Golden has since announced his retirement.
Another big question:
Would the House swear-in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., before or after the vote? Democrats will bray if Johnson fails to swear-in Grijalva before a possible House vote
And, as we say, it’s always about the math.
Swearing-in Grijalva puts the House at 433 members with two vacancies. The breakdown is 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. That means the GOP can only lose two votes before needing help from the Democrats.
Regardless, the House would not come back until at least the middle of next week if not later. It hinges on how fast the Senate can move, if it has the votes to break a filibuster and what happens to the Obamacare question.
All of this is uncertain after 39 days of the government shutdown.
And the only thing which is certain is the political reckoning for both parties.