Israel is making plans for a potential major ground offensive in Gaza that would involve sending tens of thousands of troops into combat to clear and occupy large swaths of the enclave, an Israeli official and a second source familiar with the matter said.
The potential large-scale offensive is one of several possible scenarios the Israeli government is contemplating as it escalates its attacks on Gaza and seeks to pressure Hamas to release more hostages without negotiating an end to the war.
Efforts by Egypt and Qatar to revive the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have intensified in recent days and one source said leaks about a major ground offensive are part of an Israeli effort to apply more pressure on Hamas at the negotiating table. Israeli officials have previously indicated that Israel would stop its attacks if Hamas agrees to free more hostages.
Still, the Israeli military, led by its new and more aggressive chief of staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has been crafting plans for a large-scale operation in Gaza for weeks now.
While the Israeli military has launched numerous ground offensives in Gaza over the course of the war, its forces often withdrew within days or weeks of routing Hamas fighters in the targeted area. Without an Israeli troop presence or an alternative governing or military force, Hamas would often re-emerge in those areas, prompting Israeli forces to return.
Under one potential scenario now being considered, Israeli forces would clear Hamas from large swaths of Gaza and then occupy that territory to prevent Hamas’s resurgence, the sources said. Such a decision could see the Israeli military occupying the territory and fighting insurgencies for years.
A large-scale offensive could involve five Israeli divisions — or some 50,000 troops — the sources said.
“But of course the problem is that once you escalate you can find yourself at the end of the road, in the depth of swamp. And this is the risk that no one knows if it will work or not.”
“Once you threaten something you should be prepared to do it,” he said.
The Israeli military has already begun laying the groundwork for larger-scale ground maneuvers, recapturing half of the Israeli-demarcated Netzarim corridor, which splits northern Gaza from the rest of the strip, and pushing troops into strategic locations in northern and southern Gaza.
Israel’s cabinet on Sunday set up an agency to facilitate any Palestinians in Gaza who wished to participate in a “voluntary transfer” to third countries – though none have agreed to take in emigrees.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made eliminating Hamas’s military and governance capabilities in Gaza a central war goal as he vows to achieve “absolute victory.”
But a larger-scale and longer-term Israeli military offensive in Gaza could also draw stiff resistance from the Israeli public, of which a majority has been clamoring for a deal to free the 59 hostages still held in Gaza over a return to war.
“What we will see is a permanent presence of the IDF fighting the counter-insurgency on the ground,” Hulata said. “And there will be no other option than for the IDF to assume responsibility for the humanitarian aid.”
Israel has since the beginning of March blocked all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, amplifying the humanitarian catastrophe in the strip.
Further occupation of Gaza “is, at least right now, not in the interest of Israel,” Ziv said. “For some of the extremists in the government like (Bezalel) Smotrich” – the far-right finance minister – “maybe it’s the purpose. But it’s definitely not the best of the Israeli policy at this time.”
Before Israel ended the ceasefire last week, a March 9 poll from the Israel Democracy Institute found that nearly three-quarters of Israelis supported reaching a deal to end the war with Hamas in exchange for the release of all the hostages.
And recently released hostages and the families of current hostages have warned that resuming the war in Gaza will only serve to endanger the lives of the 24 hostages estimated to still be alive.
Netanyahu’s political priorities may lie elsewhere, however. Key members of his right-wing governing coalition have been clamoring for a return to full-scale war over a negotiated settlement to free the hostages.
And Netanyahu’s aides believe US President Donald Trump will be more supportive of large-scale Israeli military action than former President Joe Biden, who suspended the transfer of certain weapons in order to forestall a major Israeli offensive into the heavily populated southern part of Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has hinted at the possibility of large-scale expansion of military ground operations, saying last week he had “instructed the IDF to seize additional territories, while evacuating the population.”
“The more Hamas continues its refusal, the more territory it will lose to Israel,” he said Friday in a statement.