A slew of new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris taking a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the ‘blue wall’ states many forecasters say she needs to win to clinch the presidency.
Marist polls of battlegrounds Michigan and Pennsylvania released on Friday have the Democratic vice president ahead of her Republican rival by two points in each state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters shows Harris with a three percentage point lead, 51-48%.
All these results are within the Marist polls’ margins of error, plus or minus 3.4 points for the Michigan and Pennsylvania polls and plus or minus 3.5 points for the Wisconsin survey. The surveys were conducted between Oct. 27-30.
The numbers point toward another historically close election next Tuesday following the 2020 cycle, when just 44,000 votes spread across key battleground states handed President Biden the Electoral College votes he needed to unseat Trump. Similarly, in 2016, Trump captured the White House by just under 78,000 votes in the three ‘blue wall’ states.
The small leads Harris holds are credited to independent voters, who appear to be moving in her direction in the final days of the election. Harris opened up a six-point lead over Trump among independents in Michigan, 52-46%, improving from a two-point lead in September. She also improved from a four-point edge with Wisconsin independents in early September to a six-point lead at the end of October.
However, the most dramatic swing comes in Pennsylvania, where Marist finds a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris at 55% and Trump at 40% compared to September, when Trump led Harris among independents 49-45%.
‘The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall states,’ said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. ‘The good news for Harris is she is running stronger among independents and white voters than Biden did four years ago. The bad news is the gender gap is not as wide here as it was in 2020 or, in fact, where it is elsewhere now.’
More surveys released Friday show a tight race.
A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted from Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, called the race a ‘toss up.’
‘We have all the results within the margin of error … it’s basically a statistical tie,’ Paleologos said, according to USA Today.
Additionally, the final Detroit Free Press poll of likely Michigan voters shows Harris with a three-percentage-point lead over Trump, strengthened by support from women and Black voters, although the margin is still within the poll’s plus or minus 4-point margin of error.
The Rust Belt states that comprise the Democratic Party’s ‘blue wall’ collectively are worth 44 Electoral College votes. Pennsylvania is the largest prize with 19 votes, Michigan has 15 and Wisconsin holds 10.
If Harris can win Pennsylvania and one other ‘blue wall’ state, Trump would need to sweep the other swing states, which include the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, to win the White House.